3. The Role of Uncertainty in Fishing

Uncertainty is the state of not knowing or having incomplete information that has a bearing on current and future risks and opportunities. Uncertainty may increase apprehension or risk and has a direct bearing on decision making. Uncertainty in fishing is caused by a wide range of factors influencing the fish, their location, and their willingness to bite.

We no sooner get the fish figured out, and nature intervenes, leaving us perplexed about what to do next. Most uncertainty in fishing is caused by changes in factors beyond our control, like weather, variable water levels, and clarity. But old habits, mood, attitude, and other personal barriers to change can increase or sustain uncertainty.

The thinking and practice behind adaptive fishing were developed by scientists who needed to make better decisions in the face of many uncertainties, often where traditional scientific approaches could not be applied. Adaptive anglers are optimistic, opportunity-seekers, using their innate and learned abilities to excel at fishing. These fishing practitioners are characterized by a flexible, open mind that is forever questioning knowledge to find new or better ways to catch more and bigger fish.